It's a common question from EZWxBrief subscribers. What forecast is used to produce the guidance shown for the station markers like the one below? It is true that many of the heavyweight and lightweight apps utilize model output statistics (MOS) as part of their hourly forecast. While MOS is a useful tool, it can be problematic at times since it essentially relies on a single forecast model for many of the forecasts to include wind, ceiling and visibility. If that model has a good initialization and has a good grasp of the weather, then the MOS will usually provide a good solution. But what if the model is out to lunch?
That's where EZWxBrief really excels. It does not rely on any single forecast model or forecast guidance for the surface-based "EZForecast" you see on the EZMap, EZRoute Profile or the Meteogram. It uses a unique mix of models that are properly blended together where MOS is just one of a dozen or more models incorporated as part of that blend. Depending on the forecast element (e.g., ceiling height), MOS may be weighted higher or lower and will usually result in a forecast that is "on average" better than using any single model. By the way, in the current version, the EZForecast does not employ the terminal aerodrome forecasts (TAFs). We are looking at adding that to the mix of forecast guidance used for a future release.
Most pilots are weatherwise, but some are otherwiseâ„¢
Dr. Scott Dennstaedt
Weather Systems Engineer
Founder, EZWxBriefâ„¢
CFI & former NWS meteorologist
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