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What's in a name?

Updated: Mar 8, 2022

First released April 13, 2009.

On January 18, 2011, the Forecast Icing Potential (FIP) found on the operational Aviation Weather Center (AWC) website received a much-needed face lift. For this update, the Forecast Icing Potential was transitioned to the Forecast Icing Product (FIP). This next generation FIP is following in the footsteps of its analysis counterpart, the Current Icing Product (CIP). A little over two years prior, the Current Icing Potential also got a face lift and was transitioned to a suite of three (3) products, namely, CIP Probability, CIP Severity and CIP SLD - SLD stands for Supercooled Large Drop icing. FIP will underwent this same transformation in 2009, but the new calibrated version of FIP carries more than just a simple name change.

Just like CIP, FIP now consist of a suite of products, namely, FIP Probability, FIP Severity and FIP SLD. FIP severity also includes the 25-percent and 50-percent masked FIP severity products. With the addition of these products, FIP is also getting its turn to be calibrated. While the FIP severity field and FIP SLD field will look similar to the operational CIP counterpart, the FIP probability field will look a bit different especially at the forecasts beyond 6 hours.

From uncalibrated to calibrated

If you were paying close attention over a decade ago, you may have noticed that CIP went through this same transition from a potential field to a probability field. The old potential field isn’t calibrated, meaning that it isn’t a statistical probability. The colors representing the potential field were contoured at 95, 85, 75, 65, …, etc. However, for CIP's transition from an icing potential to an icing probability, the developers of CIP found that when calibrating it, they could