January 2026 EZNews

Happy New Year! Thank you for taking a few minutes to read the 57th edition of EZNews!

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The devil is in the details with respect to airframe icing

Details matter especially when it comes to weather. Too many pilots feel that some of the weather analysis to follow is too much “in the weeds” for them. This is usually because these pilots do not want to take the time to learn how to effectively use tools like the Skew-T log (p) diagram and are envious of those who do make an effort to learn and unlock its plentiful secrets. These diagrams can begin to shed some important light on features that point to nasty icing conditions.

If you've been flying for some time, you might recall that on December 20, 2011, at 10:05 a.m. EST, a Socata TBM 700 departed controlled flight and crashed into terrain near Morristown, New Jersey, due to severe icing conditions at FL170. This aircraft was equipped with a certified ice protection system (IPS). There were numerous urgent pilot weather reports of moderate and severe icing throughout the area, including the two listed below.

UUA /OV MMU/TM 1308/FL140/TP MD83/TA 04/IC MOD-SEV RIME 140-165

UUA /OV BWZ250030/TM 1542/FL140/TP MULTIPLE/IC MOD-SEV RIME/RM ABE FL140-175

From a meteorological standpoint, a crucial piece of evidence that led to these severe icing conditions is evident on a Skew-T log (p) diagram. As the pilot ascended to his cruising altitude in clear air after departing the Teterboro Airport (KTEB), he encountered an overcast cloud layer with bases at 14,000 feet MSL.

We can easily drill down near the accident site and pull up a Skew-T log (p) diagram which provides these important clues. The most relevant detail worth noting on the diagram above is the very stable temperature lapse rate (blue arrow) and a slight temperature inversion beginning at the base of this cloud deck around 14,000 feet (red arrow). A weak lapse rate and inversion such as this tends to keep the clouds above very clean. That is, any kind of inversion or even a weak lapse rate aloft prevents condensation and ice nuclei from mixing up into the cloud. Clean clouds such as this allow drops to get larger (e.g., supercooled LARGE drop icing) and water in the liquid state can survive to much colder temperatures without freezing.

Let's take a look at another similar environment that occurred recently in the Pacific Northwest. There were several urgent pilot weather reports in the Portland, Oregon region including this one from a Dash-8 reporting severe mixed ice from 12,500 to 14,000 feet MSL as shown in the EZWxBrief progressive web app.

In fact, these pilot weather reports triggered the forecaster at the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) to issue the SIGMET shown below for severe ice from 10,000 feet to FL180.

The EZWxBrief meteogram from a nearby airport (KKLS) forecasts heavy ice (dark blue) over a similar range of altitudes.

Moreover, the EZWxBrief route profile view through this region also depicts areas of heavy ice. Of course, anytime you see the isotherms spread apart below an area of potential icing, that's a good sign the lapse rate may be lower and that increases the chance of having a serious icing hazard present.

But it is the Skew-T diagram below from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model that provides the clarity. Notice a similar temperature profile to the one above. There's a distinct temperature inversion (red arrow) below the region where the areas of severe and heavy icing are occurring. With moist instability above 750 mb (~8,000 feet) this inversion creates a very clean environment that will enhance the icing intensity throughout this area.

If you want to learn more about the Skew-T diagram and airframe icing, please consider purchasing the Weather Essentials for Pilots: The Skew-T Edition eBook here.

Now that's what you call a temperature inversion!

Temperature inversions are quite common especially in the overnight and early morning hours. This is usually due to radiation cooling when the skies are clear or mostly clear and the winds are somewhat light at the surface. This creates a very stable environment that causes the prevailing wind near the surface to decouple and accelerate creating what is referred to as nonconvective low-level wind shear. The winds normally peak around 2,000 feet AGL.

For the KOAX station shown above, the surface temperature is about 20 degrees Fahrenheit and the temperature at 5,000 feet MSL is about 60 degrees Fahrenheit. This creates a significant temperature inversion (red arrow) that is clearly visible on the Skew-T log (p) diagram. Notice the wind pole on the right side of the diagram (blue arrow). From the wind barbs, the wind is nearly calm at the surface and accelerates to 50 knots at 900 mb or roughly 2,000 feet AGL.

Such an inversion is also easy to visualize in the EZWxBrief meteogram view. Notice how the isotherms (lines of constant temperature) have an extremely high gradient (are packed close together). In fact, the red isotherm representing the melting level occurs at two different levels showing that warm nose or warm air over top of cold air at the surface. The deep inversion also can be seen in the route profile view as shown below.

NCAR will be dismantled

It has been reported that the current administration said it will be dismantling the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado. Much of the weather guidance you rely on has been developed by the highly skilled individuals at NCAR. The Low-LLWAS (Low-Level Wind Shear Alert System), created by NCAR researchers, has helped to virtually eliminate microburst-related wind shear accidents. Such innovations, along with Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR), demonstrate the R&D efforts working for your safety, even if you are unaware of it while enroute to your destination, departing or landing. Additionally, many of the computer algorithms that notify pilots and airline managers about turbulence were developed at NCAR. Similarly, NCAR’s aircraft icing products have been essential in the aviation industry and are distributed by NOAA’s Aviation Weather Center (AWC).

Dismantling NCAR is not just misguided—it directly undermines aviation safety, particularly for general aviation pilots who rely on accurate, science-driven weather guidance to stay alive. NCAR has been foundational in advancing our understanding of aviation weather hazards such as icing, turbulence, convection, mountain waves, and low-level wind shear—phenomena that disproportionately affect general aviation (GA) aircraft with limited performance margins. These are not abstract research topics; they are the leading contributors to weather-related GA accidents.

NCAR’s work has translated directly into safer skies through improved numerical weather prediction, better turbulence and icing diagnostics, and the science behind tools pilots use every day—graphical forecasts, ceiling and visibility guidance, convective outlooks, and probabilistic hazard products. Research led or supported by NCAR has helped NOAA, the FAA, and industry partners refine models like the GFS, HRRR, and aviation-specific decision-support systems, enabling earlier warnings and more reliable forecasts that give GA pilots the critical time needed to avoid dangerous conditions.

Weakening or dismantling NCAR would roll back decades of progress and increase risk for the most vulnerable segment of aviation. General aviation safety improvements over the past several decades are inseparable from advances in atmospheric science, and NCAR sits at the center of that ecosystem. To abandon NCAR is to ignore the clear, documented link between high-quality weather research and fewer accidents, fewer fatalities, and safer outcomes for pilots and passengers alike.

This is truly absurd on so many levels. At this time, there are over a dozen current research projects that will affect new/ongoing research that is targeted to enhance aviation safety to include updates for icing and turbulence forecasts. We are recommending that you write to or call your federal representatives letting them know you are against any changes to NCAR.

Discontinuation of TAF service for Tucumcari Municipal Airport

Effective February 19, 2026, at 1800Z, the NWS office at Albuquerque, NM, will discontinue routine TAF service for Tucumcari Municipal Airport in Tucumcari, NM (KTCC).

Discontinuation of TAF service for Castle Airport

The National Weather Service (NWS) is proposing the termination of the TAF at Castle Airport, Atwater, CA (KMER). With the lack of commercial service beyond Flight School and special events, Castle Airport has no routine air service. The proposed termination date for KMER TAF is on or about March 31, 2026.

Transfer of TAF service Westfield-Barnes Regional Airport to the USAF

Effective1700Z on December 16, 2025, the National Weather Service (NWS) Office in Norton, MA, transferred TAF responsibility for Westfield-Barnes Regional Airport (KBAF), located near Westfield in Hampden County, Massachusetts, to the United States Air Forecast (USAF), specifically the 15th Operational Weather Squadron (15 OWS). The 15 OWS provides TAF services and resource protection for military installations in the northeastern United States.

Extending the TAF validity period at the Nashville International Airport (KBNA)

Effective on January 27, 2026 at 1800Z, the NWS office at Nashville TN will extend the TAF validity period from 24 hours to 30 hours at KBNA. This is to support long-haul operations for flight to this airport.

New issuance times for WPC extended-range progs

Effective December 17, 2025, the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Days 3-7 Surface Progs issuance times were adjusted 4.5 hours later from 0430Z to 0900Z, and from 1630Z to 2100Z. Although the product issuance times have been delayed, this forecast guidance will be updated every 12 hours in the EZWxBrief progressive web app.

EZWxBrief v2 News

EZWxBrief v2.0.4 was released on December 10th. The release notes can be found here. Simply restart the app and you will have immediate access to this new release. In addition, NOAA has continued to remove public access to some of the weather data used within the EZWxBrief progressive web app for the meteogram and route profile views as well as the EZDeparture Advisor. As a result, this new weather guidance has been incorporated into the app. We are still in the process of fine tuning these new datasets to provide the best possible enroute and station-based forecasts.

Most pilots are weatherwise, but some are otherwise™

Your EZWxBrief product and sales team