February 2026 EZNews

Thank you for taking a few minutes to read the 58th edition of EZNews!

We appreciate those members who have opted for automatic monthly renewal of their EZWxBrief membership. At this time there are no options to renew your membership annually. If you haven't yet set up your account to renew automatically, please sign in and follow the prompts if your membership has expired. Otherwise, go to the User Profile page (see right) and tap or click on the Renew button on that page. This allows you to set up your monthly renewal using a Visa, MasterCard, or Discover credit card (we do not accept American Express at this time), ensuring you continue to enjoy the simplicity of EZWxBrief.

Implementation of the Domestic Aviation Forecast System (DAFS)

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will implement the Domestic Aviation Forecast System (DAFS) v1.0. This new system is an integrated suite of aviation weather products and will provide a consistent and comprehensive set of aviation forecasts for the conterminous United States and Alaskan domain. This implementation comes as a result of safety recommendations from the FAA and NTSB.

From a pilot perspective, the Domestic Aviation Forecast System (DAFS) is a consolidated, U.S.-focused aviation weather forecasting framework designed to improve consistency and decision-making across the entire flight planning timeline. Rather than relying on loosely connected or independently generated products, DAFS brings together key aviation forecasts—such as ceiling, visibility, winds, convection, icing, and turbulence—into a common modeling and verification environment. For pilots, this means that products like TAFs, Graphical Forecasts for Aviation (GFA), and supporting hazard guidance are better aligned with one another, reducing the “mixed messages” that can occur when different tools suggest conflicting outcomes.

On March 2, 2026, the Domestic Aviation Forecast System (DAFS) v1.0 will be launched, offering a comprehensive set of aviation-specific forecast products that consolidate traditionally separate aviation weather guidance into one operational system. For pilots and operators, the initial product lineup will feature 3 km resolution In-Flight Icing (IFI) forecasts (previously known as the Forecast and Current Icing Products) and the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) product. Both are generated from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model through the NCEP Unified Post Processor. These essential gridded aviation hazard forecasts are designed to enhance situational awareness regarding icing and turbulence in both the contiguous U.S. and Alaska regions. This new forecast guidance will eventually be available on the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) website at aviationweather.gov.

The Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) product is being upgraded from version 3 (GTG3) to version 4 (GTG4). An assessment of GTG4 (specifically GTG 4.2) was prepared for the Federal Aviation Administration’s Aviation (FAA) Weather Research Program by NOAA’s Forecast Impact and Quality Assessment Services Branch. Based on this assessment, the maximum possible skill for GTG4 is substantially higher than that for GTG3. This maximum skill is achieved at lower Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) forecast values, so the greater skill comes with fewer hits and fewer false alarms per forecast volume. Consequently, GTG4 provides greater value for users who are more sensitive to false alarms but less value to users who are more sensitive to missed events.

The finding that GTG4 favors users who are more sensitive to false alarms—while offering less value to those sensitive to missed events—raises a meaningful concern for general aviation pilots flying small or light aircraft such as the Cirrus SR22. In this segment of aviation, the operational and safety consequences of missing a turbulence event often outweigh the inconvenience of being warned too often. Light aircraft are inherently more susceptible to moderate and even light-to-moderate turbulence due to lower mass, higher wing loading sensitivity, and less structural and ride-margin than transport-category airplanes. What might be an acceptable “miss” for an airline flight at FL370 can translate into a genuinely hazardous encounter for a piston or light turboprop aircraft operating at lower altitudes.

Based on this assessment, the maximum possible skill for GTG4 is substantially higher than that for GTG3. This maximum skill is achieved at lower (EDR) forecast values, so the greater skill comes with fewer hits and fewer false alarms per forecast volume. Consequently, GTG4 provides greater value for users who are more sensitive to false alarms but less value to users who are more sensitive to missed events.

For general aviation (GA) pilots flying small/light aircraft, turbulence guidance serves less as a comfort-management tool and more as a primary risk-avoidance input. A missed turbulence event can expose occupants to loss of control risks, structural exceedances, autopilot disconnects, or pilot task saturation—particularly in IMC or mountainous terrain where escape options are limited. Many GA aircraft are also flown single-pilot, compounding the workload implications of unexpected turbulence. In this context, a product that suppresses alerts to reduce false alarms may inadvertently erode the conservative decision-making margin that GA pilots depend on when selecting altitudes, routing around terrain-induced turbulence, or deciding whether to launch at all.

Finally, GA pilots often lack the layered turbulence mitigation available to airline crews: dispatch support, real-time ride reports across fleets, onboard weather radar optimized for high-altitude operations, and aircraft capable of climbing above the majority of turbulence-producing layers. For these pilots, preflight and inflight guidance like GTG plays an outsized role. If GTG4 systematically trades missed-event sensitivity for reduced false alarms, it risks aligning the product more closely with airline operational preferences than with the safety needs of the most turbulence-vulnerable users. In the GA environment, an occasional false alarm is usually a tolerable price to pay for not being surprised by turbulence that the aircraft—and pilot—are least equipped to absorb.

EZWxBrief adds convectively-induced turbulence to the app

The EZWxBrief progressive web app now incorporates convectively-induced turbulence into the turbulence guidance found in the Airport Wx meteogram and route profile views. This was added with v2.0.5 released on January 15, 2026. Currently, when selecting the TURB view on the meteogram or route profile, you will see an option for CAT/CIT (clear air/convectively-induced) and MWT (mountain-wave). These two buttons can be selected together or independently. When selecting CAT/CIT, this will combine any turbulence that is the result of clear air turbulence and convectively-induced turbulence. At some point in time, we may add a separate button to allow users to choose these independently.

For example, below is a route from southeastern Florida to Fresh Creek Airport (MYAF) in the Bahamas. Notice that the forecast radar from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model depicts the potential for deep, moist convection over the latter part of the route and nearby the destination at the time of arrival.

Looking at the vertical route profile below with TURB selected, it's easy to see that most of the route, turbulence is not a factor. However, convectively induced turbulence is expected and is shown in red with EDR values of 41 (the severe category begins at 36). Please note that the new version of the app has a button labeled CAT/CIT in order to visualize this forecast.

SPC Convective Outlook changes

On March 3, 2026, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) will begin issuing conditional intensity forecasts of significant severe weather for Days 1, 2, and 3. These new Conditional Intensity Groups (CIG) will include three intensity distributions (CIG1, CIG2, and CIG3) to communicate increasing intensity of significant severe hazards, should severe hazards occur. These new Conditional Intensity Groups will be visible on the SPC Severe Weather Outlook Day 1, 2, and 3 graphics like you see below.

These will continue to appear on the static weather imagery under Storm Prediction Center: SPC Convective Outlooks.

Retirement is approaching

Yes, Scott will be formally retiring at the end of 2026. He has been in the weather business for over 45 years and served as a flight instructor for nearly 30 years. He is looking forward to spending more time with his grandkids and over the next couple of decades traveling to interesting places around the world with his wife. So what does retirement look like for Scott's products and services?

First and foremost, EZWxBrief will persist into the foreseeable future. Although we are searching for a potential buyer, Scott will continue to support the progressive web app even after he is fully retired. EZWxBrief may be updated with new features from time to time so that members will continue to enjoy the simplicity of EZWxBrief. Given that we have moved to a more stable platform that is more reliable and better hidden from cyber attacks, sporadic outages may still occur and he'll do his best to keep the app performing well. He plans to discontinue this monthly eNewsletter at the end of the year although he will send out any release notes as they occur.

Scott plans to retire from his CFI job with 1-on-1 online training opportunities decreasing over time. So if you are interested in any virtual training over the remainder of this year, it would be a good idea to book that time before year's end. In fact, if you have an active online training subscription, those hours need to be used prior to December 31, 2026. At this point, he no longer offers any new annual subscription plans for his online training and will continue to decrease the number of days available for online training over the next year or two.

Scott plans to continue to sell his two books, Weather Essentials for Pilots: The Skew-T Edition (eBook only) and Pilot Weather: From Solo to the Airlines (softcover and eBook). He will also continue to sell the recordings to his four live Weather Essentials classes.

Scott plans to continue to write and add more content to his Weather Essentials for Pilots eBook with the last update occurring in July. He is interested in providing content to various magazines and will continue to do public speaking at various aviation events throughout the country. At the moment, he has no plans to attend SUN 'n FUN or AirVenture as a vendor or forum speaker from this point forward.

If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to Scott here.

EZWxBrief v2 News

EZWxBrief v2.0.5 was released on January 15th. The release notes can be found here. Simply close and restart the app and you will have immediate access to this new release.

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